Trump Found Guilty
In May, the court found the former president guilty of all 34 charges in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through a hush money payment to an adult film actress.
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Justice Juan Merchan set Trump’s sentencing for July 11, just days before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. GOP leaders remain resolute in their support for Trump as the Republican candidate and will most likely make him their nominee at the convention.
The “Witch Hunt”
At the Nevada rally, Trump supporters explained why they still stood behind the former president after his conviction, noting that his “witch hunt” was unfair and lacked equal justice between Republicans and Democrats.
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“I think it was a witch hunt. I think it was devised to incite rage and divide throughout the country,” one supporter told Fox News.
The “Sham” Trial
One supporter told Fox News that he came to the rally because Trump’s “shame” trail had exposed the “corrupt system” created, stating that “because Joe Biden is ruining this country.”
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“I really think they’re pulling out all the stops to try and make him not run for president, but in my eyes, I’m still going to vote for him no matter what happens,” one said, while another added the trial was “the biggest scam ever.”
Trump Needs to “Clear Up” the Justice System
Another supporter echoed a similar sentiment, saying she “wasn’t crazy” about Trump during his term but changed her mind during President Biden’s term.
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She stated that the outcome of the trial was “not correct” and that the justice system was “the first swamp he needs to clear up when he gets back into office.”
Trump Seemingly Creates More Opportunities
Another supporter told Fox News that he would be voting for Trump because he believed the former president provided more opportunities for Black and Hispanic people.
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Another member of the rally said they came to “show how much they love” Trump and would support him regardless of what he was going through because “we need him back.”
Trump Takes the Lead
The rally drew thousands of Trump supporters to Sunset Park in Nevada, just miles from the Las Vegas Strip. Polls suggest that Trump leads Biden in the swing state.
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The rally also comes days after another poll from Fox News found that Trump leads Biden by five points in the overall race.
The Fierce Support Behind Trump
While it is evident that Trump’s criminal conviction has no impact on whether voters will support him in the upcoming election, the attitude largely reflects that infamous quote from Trump during his first presidential campaign.
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“I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK?” Trump said at a 2016 rally at Dordt College in Iowa.
The Odds Against Trump
However, Trump’s conviction isn’t broadening his support in the US. The former president will need to expand beyond his fan base if he is looking to get re-elected.
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A Reuters poll found that 10% of Republicans would be less likely to vote for him in November, while 25% of independents say the conviction makes it less likely for them to support him (via Courthouse News).
Swing States Are Incredibly Important
“If you’re looking at states like Georgia, like Pennsylvania, potentially Arizona this time around, where a few thousand votes in either direction really could decide which way that state goes, 10% of Republicans is a lot of votes,” Mark Shanahan, a U.S. politics professor at the University of Surrey, said.
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On top of that, US voters probably already know who they are voting for in November as the match-up is the same as the last election four years ago.
The Path to Victory is Narrowing
“‘[Trump’s] path to victory is narrowing very, very quickly,” Shanahan said. “I think when sentencing comes in July, that will have an impact on those undecideds as well.”
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While Trump faces sentencing for his Class E felonies, which carry a possible sentence of 16 months to four years, experts say that state bail laws are unlikely to require Trump to serve any prison time.
Trump Could Be Immune to Prosecution
Throughout the trial, Justice Merchant stressed the importance of allowing Trump to campaign and exercise his First Amendment rights as he seeks another term in the White House. If Trump does become president again, he will be granted immunity for official acts.
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However, scholars and legal experts dispute whether presidents can enjoy immunity from criminal liability or prosecution, as the Constitution and federal statutes do not explicitly grant either criminal or civil immunity.