Debunked: The “Pause” in Global Warming Myth

A decade ago, multiple people in the climate community believed that the rising global surface temperatures had paused in 1997. Researchers published studies supporting this idea, and the peak of slower-than-average warming occurred in 2015.

Nearly a decade later, talk of a “pause” has re-emerged among climate skeptics. Columnist Melanie Phillips claimed in the Times that, “contrary to the dogma which holds that a rise in carbon dioxide inescapably heats up the atmosphere, global temperature has embarrassingly flatlined for more than seven years even as CO2 levels have risen.”

Monckton’s blog claims to highlight the lack of a trend in global temperatures over the last eight years. While the last eight years have been unusually warm, global temperatures exceed 1.2 Celsius pre-industrial levels.

In a rebuttal letter to the Times, Professor Richard Betts, the head of climate impacts research at the Met Office Hadley Centre and University of Exeter, points out that it is “fully expected that there will be peaks of particularly high temperatures followed by a few less hot years before the next new record year.”

When looking at the record of global temperatures over time, there are periods where the rate of warming either slows down or speeds up for short durations.

Despite these short-term variations, the overall long-term trend is a consistent increase in global temperatures due to human activities, particularly the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gasses.

Drawing the conclusion that warming has “flatlined” relies on looking at data over a short period in isolation.

The reality of saying that global warming has “paused” is a result of cherry-picking data to prove a point. While temperatures are a little cooler than predicted by long-term warming trends before the 2015-16 super El Niño, there hasn’t been a “pause” in climate change.

These phenomena cause short-term impacts on global temperatures. However, these do not alter the long-term warming trend.

Global land and ocean temperature records and satellite data confirm that the climate is continuing to warm.

Climate models accurately simulate temperature observations, recording the warmer or cooler years that have affected Earth’s climate.

While misleading claims that temperatures on Earth have flatlined in the last eight years have been making headlines, the global climate is still warming pre-industrial levels.