Harris Takes the Lead as Biden Steps Down
In July 2024, President Joe Biden announced his decision to step down from the race, paving the way for Kamala Harris as the Democratic presumptive nominee.
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Since then, Harris has surged ahead in the polls, leading Trump by as much as 25 points, according to a University of California, Berkeley and The Los Angeles Times, survey conducted between July 31 and August 11.
Trump’s California Campaign Faces Resistance
Despite efforts by Trump’s team to rally support in California, the state remains a tough battleground. Trump lawyer Alina Habba claimed in an August 15 TikTok video that Californians are fed up with Governor Gavin Newsom’s policies.
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However, recent surveys suggest that Trump’s message is not resonating with the majority of voters in the Golden State.
A Closer Look at the Polling Numbers
Polling data paints a clear picture of Trump’s uphill battle. The University of California, Berkeley survey found Harris leading Trump by 25 points, with 59% of the vote compared to Trump’s 34%.
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This is a significant increase from earlier polls, where Biden held a smaller lead before stepping down from the race in July.
Gender Gap Widens Between Harris and Trump
A recent poll by Siena College for The New York Times revealed a 35-point gender gap in support between Harris and Trump.
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While Harris enjoys a 21-point lead among women, Trump leads among men by 14 points.
Trump’s Criticism of Harris and Its Impact
On August 15, Trump targeted Kamala Harris during a press conference, claiming she “destroyed San Francisco” as California’s attorney general and would “do the same thing to our country” if elected.
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While Trump’s remarks are intended to undermine Harris, polls suggest they haven’t significantly swayed public opinion in California.
California’s Democratic Stronghold
California has long been a Democratic stronghold, and the current political climate suggests this won’t change in 2024.
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Historically, the state has voted overwhelmingly for Democratic presidential candidates, and Harris’ strong lead in the polls reflects the continued loyalty of California voters to the party.
The Role of Independent and Third-Party Candidates
While Harris and Trump dominate the headlines, other candidates are also vying for votes. A Capitol Weekly poll found that 5% of likely California voters support independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., while 2% back Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
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These figures, though small, could still impact the overall race.
Harris’ Local Appeal as a California Native
Kamala Harris’ deep roots in California play a significant role in her popularity within the state. As a former attorney general and senator, Harris has long been a prominent figure in California politics.
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Her local appeal is a key factor in her strong polling numbers, particularly among the state’s liberal and diverse electorate.
The Influence of California’s Liberal Policies
Alina Habba’s remarks about Californians being frustrated with liberal policies reflect a common Republican talking point.
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However, the polling data suggests that these policies, including those related to immigration and environmental issues, remain popular with the majority of California voters, further challenging Trump’s campaign.
The Significance of California’s Electoral Votes
With 54 electoral votes, California holds significant sway in the presidential election. Winning the state is crucial for any candidate aiming for the White House.
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However, with Harris maintaining a substantial lead in the polls, Trump’s chances of securing California’s electoral votes appear slim.
What’s Next for Trump’s Campaign in California?
As the 2024 election draws nearer, Trump’s campaign will need to rethink its strategy if it hopes to make any inroads in California. While the polls currently favor Harris, the race is far from over.
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Trump’s team will need to address the state’s key issues and appeal to its diverse electorate to stand a chance in November.