NASA Exercise Reveals 72% Asteroid Collision Risk, Highlights Earth’s Big Problem

By: Alyssa Miller | Last updated: Jul 10, 2024

NASA recently conducted its fifth biennial Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise to assess our preparedness for potential asteroid threats.

This exercise involved nearly 100 representatives from various U.S. government agencies and international collaborators. The scenario explored a hypothetical asteroid with a 72% chance of hitting Earth in 14 years.

Purpose of the Exercise

The exercise aimed to evaluate national and global response strategies to asteroid threats. It provided valuable insights into risks, response options, and collaboration opportunities.

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Earth - Eastern Hemisphere

Source: NASA, Wikimedia

These hypothetical scenarios help prepare for real-world situations and enhance planetary defense capabilities.

The Last Exercise 

The last exercise, held in 2022, focused on responding to a short-term asteroid impact threat. In that particular case, this short-term impact threat involved a small asteroid that ultimately hit North Carolina six months after discovery.

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North Carolina welcome sign on the side of a highway

Source: Ken Lund/Flickr

The test intended to evaluate how federal, state, and local officials would respond to a real-life situation.

The Hypothetical Scenario

Participants considered a newly detected asteroid with a 72% chance of impact in 14 years. However, initial observations were insufficient to determine the asteroid’s size, composition, or precise trajectory.

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A photograph of an asteroid hitting Earth

Source: Wikimedia

Further complicating the scenario, essential follow-up observations were delayed for seven months due to the asteroid passing behind the Sun.

The Hypothetical Asteroid on a Crash Course for Earth

Even asteroids at the smaller end of the range given for the hypothetical asteroid in the exercise (estimated to be anywhere from 60 meters to 800 meters across) could cause significant damage to Earth.

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A photograph of the Earth from space/A large asteroid heading towards Earth

Source: Wikimedia/Wikimedia

While “a 60-meter asteroid impacting somewhere in the middle of the ocean” wouldn’t be a real problem, Johnson says, the same asteroid hitting land near a metropolitan area would be “a serious situation.”

The Long-Term Hypothetical 

This recent exercise focused on a long-term hypothetical: the discovery of a near-Earth object that would impact with earth in 2038.

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A photograph of Earth/A photograph of the Northern Lights taken during the evening

Source: Wikimedia/Wikimedia

Similarly to last year’s test, a group of participants had to grapple with the uncertainties about the object trajectory, with potential impact locations on a path that extended from Mexico and the US to southern Europe and the Middle East.

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The Unknown Threats

According to NPR, astronomers estimate that there are roughly 25,000 of these near-Earth objects, which are 140 meters across or larger, but only 43% of them have been found according to data prepared for the table-top exercise.

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Beyond Neptune, there is a large disc of small objects, called the Kuiper Belt and beyond that is the Oort cloud, home of the comets. This artwork shows a section of Kuiper Belt, crowded with the icy cores of potential comets, and it will feature in the ESO Supernova exhibition "The living Universe".

Source: Wikimedia Commons

While this threat is looming over Earth, there are groups of researchers who are looking to the stars to find any incoming threats.

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The Most Likely Scenario

“It’s the most likely scenario we would face if we’re successful in doing our search for the NEO population,” said Lindley Johnson, NASA’s planetary defense officer emeritus, at the briefing (via SpaceNews).

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A NASA press conference for Boeing’s crewed Starliner flight with many top officials sitting at tables.

Source: NASA/Joel Kowsky/Wikimedia Commons

“We will know years, even decades, in advance of a potential impact threat, and therefore have the necessary time to prepare for it.”

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New Participants at the Table

This tabletop exercise also included international participants for the first time, with representatives from several international space agencies like the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs.

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Anna Joubin-Bret, Secretary, United Nations Commission on International Trade Law, delivers her remarks at the opening of the Handover Ceremony of the Chairmanship of the G-77 Vienna Chapter held at the Vienna International Centre, Vienna, Austria. 26 January 2023.

Source: DEAN CALMA/Wikimedia Commons

Johnson said, “In this exercise, we wanted to examine the processes by which we would come together, both interagency and internationally, to decide what is the right course of action.”

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Technological Insights from DART

The exercise utilized data from NASA’s DART mission, which impacted the asteroid moonlet Dimorphos in 2022.

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Photograph of a large asteroid floating through space

Source: Wikimedia

This mission demonstrated that a kinetic impactor could change an asteroid’s trajectory, highlighting the potential for using such technology in future defense efforts.

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Role of FEMA in the Exercise

FEMA played a crucial role in the exercise, leveraging its expertise in disaster preparedness and response.

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A photograph of a female researcher

Source: Freepik

Leviticus “L.A.” Lewis, FEMA detailee to NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office, confirmed FEMA’s commitment to helping communities understand and prepare for potential risks, including asteroid impacts.

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International Collaboration

For the first time, international collaborators participated in the exercise, reflecting the global nature of planetary defense.

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Two Person in Long-sleeved Shirt Shakehand

Source: Cytonn Photography/Pexels

This collaboration aimed to enhance global response strategies and foster international cooperation in mitigating potential asteroid threats.

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Importance of Follow-Up Observations

The scenario showed the critical need for timely follow-up observations to accurately determine an asteroid’s threat level.

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Illustration of an asteroid heading toward planet earth

Source: iStock

The seven-month delay in observations due to the asteroid passing behind the Sun highlighted potential gaps in our current observation capabilities.

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Development of NEO Surveyor

NASA is developing the NEO Surveyor, an infrared space telescope set to launch in June 2028.

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A photograph of a large satellite flying past the moon

Source: European Space Agency

This telescope will expedite the discovery and characterization of potentially hazardous near-Earth objects, providing more time to evaluate and respond to threats before they pose an impact risk.

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Findings and Recommendations

The complete after-action report will identify strengths and gaps in the current planetary defense strategy.

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An image of several scientists working on data in their office

Source: Wikimedia

These findings will help shape future exercises and studies, ensuring continuous improvement in preparedness and response capabilities.

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Quotes from Key Figures

Lindley Johnson, NASA’s Planetary Defense Officer Emeritus, emphasized the unique ability to predict and prevent large asteroid impacts years in advance.

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Numerous reporters gathered on the street, taking a statement

Source: Freepik

“These outcomes will help to shape future exercises and studies to ensure NASA and other government agencies continue improving planetary defense preparedness,” Johnson said.

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Role of Technology in Planetary Defense

The exercise highlighted the importance of technology in planetary defense.

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An up-close look at the Starliner capsule and its rocket seen on its launchpad in the daytime.

Source: NASA/Joel Kowsky/Wikimedia Commons

Missions like DART and upcoming projects like NEO Surveyor are crucial for improving our ability to detect, monitor, and mitigate potential asteroid threats.

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Future Outlook

NASA’s fifth biennial exercise clearly conveyed the importance of preparedness and international collaboration in planetary defense.

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An artist's rendition of an asteroid flying through space

Source: Wikimedia

As scientists continue to develop and refine their strategies, these exercises will play a critical role in ensuring we are ready to respond effectively to potential asteroid threats.

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The Results of the Test

Luckily, this tabletop exercise did not end in destruction like last year’s dramatic ending. “We actually stayed stuck in one moment in time for the duration of the exercise. We didn’t fast-forward,” says Terik Daly, the planetary defense section supervisor at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland.

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A photograph of Earth from Space

Source: Getty Images

This allowed attendees to discuss how to communicate both the uncertainties, the urgent need to act, and the funding.

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Researchers Suggested Two Spacecraft Missions

Once the asteroid came back into view from Earth, two spacecraft missions would need to be sent out. One of the missions would involve a flyby, estimated to cost between $200 million and $400 million.

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Boeing’s Starliner capsule attached to a rocket seen on the ground in the daytime.

Source: NASA/Wikimedia Commons

The other spacecraft missions would be a rendezvous with the asteroid that would cost about $800 million to $1 billion. Both of these missions would help groups on Earth better understand the asteroid and its risk of impact.

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What Would Political Leaders Do? 

NASA’s report on the exercise notes that “many stakeholders expressed that they would want as much information about the asteroid as soon as possible but expressed skepticism that funding would be forthcoming to obtain such information without more definitive knowledge of the risk.”

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A photograph of the White House

Source: Wikimedia

While representatives from space institutions had a preference for action, money is necessary, forcing the question: “What would political leaders actually do?”

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The Funding Problem

While understanding the risks proposed by the asteroid, funding for both missions in a short amount of time would be unlikely. Senior leaders in the exercise favored either spacecraft option, and political leaders stated they wanted a better understanding of the asteroid risk before funding any missions.

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A photograph of several American $100 bills

Source: Freepik

“Examining how long it takes to pull a mission together, the flight time it takes to get to the asteroid and the launch windows that are available to get to the asteroid, that eats up a decade of time pretty fast, so that is certainly a concern looking at it from a technological standpoint,” Lindley Johnson, NASA’s Planetary Defense Officer Emeritus, said.

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The Importance of Communication

The exercise also demonstrated the importance of clear and accurate communications between federal agencies, international groups, and civilians.

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Photograph of the first time Franklin D. Roosevelt spoke on television

Source: @Ocean City Intermediate School/Facebook

“What is it that people would want to know, when would they want to know it, how to communicate it in an effective way,” said Daly.

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Testing for the Future 

NASA officials wrote in the same statement (via Space) that while there are no known significant asteroid impact threats for the foreseeable future, hypothetical exercises like this one, conducted about every two years, provide valuable insights into how the United States could effectively respond if a potential asteroid impact threat is identified.

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A large rocket ship launching off from Earth and spilling large plumes of smoke behind it

Source: NASA

Being prepared for unknown objects that may or may not be floating toward Earth at destructive speeds always benefits humanity.

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