Scientists Are Preparing for a Major Weather Transition this Summer that Could Bring Drought and Floods to the US

Scientists who have been closely monitoring the powerful El Niño climate pattern have hypothesized that it concluded last summer, leading our planet into the La Niña phase. This phase is characterized by stronger-than-usual winds and a slight cooling of the Pacific waters, potentially causing droughts and heavy rains in the US. 

Cold water then rises from the depths of the Pacific Ocean to replace this in a process known as upwelling to researchers. El Niño and La Niña are two distinct weather patterns that break up these regular conditions. 

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, El Niño and La Niña events can dramatically impact global weather, ecosystems, wildfires, and, ultimately, the economy. They occur every two to seven years and typically last nine to 12 months once they arrive. 

During an El Niño event, which translates as ‘little boy’ in Spanish, trade winds slowly weaken, and warmer ocean water is pushed back towards the Americas from the Far East. 

“The warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. With this shift, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual,” wrote the NOAA. 

This results in fewer phytoplankton off the coast, which is an integral part of the food chain in the Pacific. The warmer waters also allow tropical species, such as albacore and yellowtail tuna, to thrive in the region. 

El Niño is a natural event, marked by warmer ocean temperatures in the Pacific, reached its peak earlier this year, contributing to record-breaking global temperatures and significant weather events.

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, this neutral period is temporary, with La Niña expected to take over by late summer.

Historically, La Niña conditions lead to cooler ocean temperatures and can significantly influence weather patterns, especially during the peak of the hurricane season.

La Niña’s effects on the weather are the complete opposite of El Niño. According to NOAA, “trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.”

Heavy rains, flooding, and an increased chance of hurricanes are also expected in the Pacific Northwest and as far away as Canada. However, during a La Niña year, scientists typically expected the South to experience warmer weather, whereas the North would remain cooler. 

According to the NOAA, “This environment supports more marine life and attracts more cold-water species, like squid and salmon, to places like the California coast.”

However, this figure jumps to nearly 80% for the three-month period of September to November, suggesting experts are almost certain La Niña is on its way. 

This summer is expected to be no different, with above-average temperatures forecasted for nearly all of the Lower 48 states.

Seasonal forecasts indicate that the western states and parts of the Plains will experience significant dryness, exacerbating the risk of drought.

Hotter conditions dry out the land, and dry land heats up more quickly, which can worsen drought conditions and lead to even higher temperatures.

La Niña typically creates favorable conditions for storm development, increasing the likelihood of more frequent and intense hurricanes.

This, combined with La Niña’s influence, could result in stronger and more persistent hurricanes this season.

It significantly contributed to global temperature records and influenced extreme weather events over the past year, from severe droughts in Africa to record-low levels of the Amazon River.

These events have been some of the most impactful weather phenomena in the region over the past year.

Oceans are slow to lose heat, especially given the excess heat stored from fossil fuel emissions.

“Every month since June 2023 has set a new temperature record – and 2023 was by far the warmest year on record. The end of El Niño does not mean a pause in long-term climate change, as our planet will continue to warm due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Exceptionally high sea surface temperatures will continue to play an important role during next months,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.

This is why the Early Warnings for All initiative remains WMO’s top priority. Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña and the anticipated impacts on the climate patterns globally are an important tool to inform early warnings and early action,” she said. 

From heightened hurricane activity to potential droughts, being informed about these shifts can help reduce their impacts and better prepare for what lies ahead.